- Published: Thursday, 06 December 2012
Power industry in Kazakhstan is on the verge of crisis. If you do not take immediate action to restructure the industry, then in the near future Kazakhstan will again be forced to buy candles and lanterns, as it was in heavy 90s. In order to avoid power shortages, and, according to some experts, it can start as early as next year, the industry until 2015 to invest about 2.8 trillion tenge. Now the growth of energy consumption in the country is 5.6% per year. At the same time each year with the growth of consumption and the growing deterioration of the regional electric grid equipment networks. Today it is over 65%.
Age-old question "What to do?" In this case seems to have been resolved. Clear as day - to invest, invest and re-invest in the development and modernization of the electric power industry of the country. But now, in front of the country's power is another question: "Where is the money? '. It is obvious that for investors, this market segment unattractive because of the high costs and considerable payback on investment. However, according to Kanata Bozumbayev, chairman of the holding company "Samruk" and part of the Kazakh Energy Association, private investors can and should engage, but the government should make the industry more attractive for them. One way - the extension of preferences for private stakeholders of the energy sector. This requires changes to the Tax and Land Codes, the Law "On investments". In addition, according to energy, to determine the clear price signals for investors to take the medium pricing in the industry.
As for us as long as thunder breaks, no one moves. That was the result, that the problems that were brewing for years, "hatched" to light only when it became clear - a disaster in the industry is imminent.
While thunder struck ...
Perhaps part of the cost of upgrading the electricity sector of the country and lies on the shoulders of ordinary consumers. As the rope Bozumbayev at the recent national meeting of Power IV: "Cheap power ends." He added that, along with the need to stop talking and begin to finally introduce new technologies, which provide up to 45-50 percent of energy efficiency compared to the current 25 percent efficiency. "We need to create a new image of Power - not those that are currently involved knocking out tariffs and those that provide a reliable power supply and prevent rolling blackouts," - he said. The hidden meaning of this sends, I think, is clear: "Do not you want to power cuts, pay more."
The fact that the threat of the approaching catastrophe of power engineers in the industry are not empty words, say the specialists, which resulted in his speech, Chairman of the holding "Samruk", "At the current rate of growth of power in 2009 may have problems of power supply in many regions of Kazakhstan, especially in the south. According to estimates, by 2010, electricity consumption could exceed 95 billion kW / h, and in 2015 - 125 billion kilowatt / hour. " Provide the desired level of consumption is not possible, because the resources of enterprises that provide energy, have been exhausted. Thus, remaining in power of the power system of Kazakhstan is 10 to 37%, with almost a third of the national power grid lines (NES) in Kazakhstan operated 30-40 years, yet 26% of high voltage exceeds the standard lifetime - more than 40 years.
However, in the country is already being implemented as approved in 2007, "Action Plan for the development of power industry of the Republic of Kazakhstan for 2007-2015." According to him, 2015 is expected commissioning of new generating facilities with total capacity of 8164 MW through the construction of new and expansion of existing power plants and the implementation of projects for the development and rehabilitation of NES RC electric networks RECs. According to the president of JSC «KEGOC» Almasadama Satkalieva, approximate amount of investment needed in the generation sector, is about 1.55 trillion tenge to the national power grid (6 projects) investments in the order of 197 billion tenge. And for the rehabilitation and development of distribution networks need to raise about 963 billion tenge. In general, it turns out that the implementation of all planned in the power sector will require about 2.8 trillion tenge, or 23.4 billion U.S. dollars.
The government has maintained a list of breakthrough projects, the development of which the first will be allocated from the budget. This generation of development projects: the construction of the Balkhash thermal power plant capacity of 2640 MW expansion Ekibastuz GRES-2 - 1050 MW hydropower construction Moinak - 300 MW hydropower plant construction Kerbulak - 50 MW. Also plans to build new power plants: Karaganda plant-4 capacity of 570 MW thermal power station in Astana-3 - 240 MW, Semipalatinsk HPP-3 - 195 MW CHP Taldykorgan - 370 MW hydro Bulak - 68 MW. Also plan to expand the existing power input 2708 MW of new generating capacity, including CHP-2 (Astana) - 120 MW, Almaty CHP-2 - 240 MW; Karaganda GRES-1 - 150 MW; Karaganda GRES-2 - 55 MW.
Work, as they say, - no end. But, as the Almasadam Satkaliyev "given the inertia of the electric power industry related to length of time to complete projects, today it is necessary to think about the issues of the industry in the run up to 2030." That is, by and large, Mr Satkaliyev has work ahead of schedule. In principle, the approach is correct, but perhaps in this case it is necessary to consider not only the inertia of the industry, but the inertia of people. As for us as long as thunder breaks, no one moves. That was the result, that the problems that were brewing for years, "hatched" to light only when it became clear - a disaster in the industry is imminent.
The alternative is
Another thing is obvious - in the near future become particularly relevant and alternative energy sources. Thus, according to the president of JSC «KEGOC», 2030 will require the maximum use of hydro potential of Kazakhstan, especially in the south and southeast. Until that date, the construction of over forty plants with total capacity to 1,450 MW. About the use of renewable energy sources (RES) in Kazakhstan, said at a meeting of Power and director of "EnergoAlem" Kenzhemurat Dukenbaev. In his view, an important consideration is the use of renewable energy is no need for investment and operating costs in related industries: mining, part / processing, transportation and storage of fossil fuels, disposal and storage of waste processing and incineration. However, the disadvantages of renewable energy sources, as they are low energy potential, high unit costs and low efficiency of plants renewable energy, and, as a consequence, the high cost of the final product to use alternative sources of energy is constrained not only in Kazakhstan but also in more developed countries.
But on the other hand, the development of energy from renewable energy gives rise to a powerful new industry segments of the economy, in one way or another related to renewable energy. In this case, the director "EnergoAlem" believes that "renewable energy is a unique industry, which incorporates the achievement of many sciences - from metrology to metallurgy. And made innovative solutions can be applied in the first place in the small and medium business in the country. "
In principle, it is logical - the same wind turbine is able to give the necessary amount of energy for the normal functioning of agricultural farm. However, installation costs, energy storage and the possibility to reduce the windless periods "no" appropriateness of its use in Kazakhstan. Another thing, if the state provides comprehensive support to such projects - then the development of this segment of the electric power industry, it may have become a reality. So, for example, in India, the developer RES installations exempt from all taxes. The money he puts out his debts on loans and is interested in early entry into force and to ensure their efficiency. This mechanism gives good results. Annual growth of the park comes to renewable energy plants of 300 MW, which is comparable to the annual growth of electricity consumption in Kazakhstan. In Sweden, the investment grants from the government to cover 85% of the cost of building wind farms and 25% of the costs - for the construction of heating systems based on solar energy. We can only dream about such.
Another alternative is the development of nuclear energy. But in the debate on the use of this type of energy until some consensus is no, and no nuclear power in the country ... But, according to some experts, its use would solve many problems associated with the upcoming energy shortage. Today in the world on nuclear energy accounts for about 20% of the world's electricity. And this despite the fact that nuclear power plants are only 30 countries in the world. Experts who study the global fuel and energy issues, said that the need for a broad construction of the plant is growing from year to year. The analysis carried out by several prestigious international organizations, shows that by 2050, nuclear power plants will have been about 50 countries. In many ways it can be said that Kazakhstan will enter this number. For now, this issue is not resolved, we should attend to the decision of more pressing problems.
Industry awaits investors
At the end of IV national meeting of Power board Kazakhstan Electricity Association adopted a document containing a series of recommendations. Thus, experts believe that the industry today require government support in the form of targeted transfers. This should increase the authorized capital of state holdings and national companies involved in the implementation of breakthrough projects. It is important to establish a mechanism of state guarantees and to attract loans and credits to be able to implement the identified projects on a public-private partnership. Will it help to attract investors? Energy think so. This is the opinion and control LLC "Legal Company" German "Talgat Shakenova. In his view, natural monopolies, which include power companies - one of the most attractive sectors for investment. "The appeal follows even from the name - a natural monopoly. There is no alternative to a specific market for the sale of products. Accordingly, there is a problem in the sales organization, and the investor is assured of repayment of their investments - said Mr Shakenov. - There is no doubt in the industry, there are problems associated with a large network and equipment wear and tear, but it can be a plus for investors, as he sees where his money goes. Sees the efficiency of investments, may initially calculate their profits. "
Attracting so badly needed funds for modernization and development of the electricity sector of the country by raising tariffs, which recently said more and more, may lead to negative social consequences. Understand this truth and in the government, and do energy. Today, therefore, the search for investors plays a special role. But for the actual execution of this step, according to Talgat Shakenova, it is important that everyone interested in investing a natural monopoly has developed a policy document that determines its further development. It should include a forecast of the consumption of electricity and power generation centers, indicating, concepts and technical solutions for construction and reconstruction of networks, the steps and schedule of construction and reconstruction of networks, the real sources of funding and return. Only then can you begin to look for funds. It is quite clear that to invest in the company that does not have at least a medium-term development plans for the opaque form of administration and with financial instability, does not want any prospective investor. It turns out that in the long run, in order to get the money, the company has to make some effort. I think, it is quite natural and logical.
Summarizing, we can say that today the country's electricity industry is facing many problems requiring urgent solutions. In their resolution interested themselves of energy as the government and ordinary consumers. And if at the highest levels understand the need for energy development, investment and support for the sector by the government, then you can wear that catastrophes in the industry we can avoid.
Prepared by Nicholas Limov